JPMorgan reveals 3 scenarios for Bitcoin price in 2036

JPMorgan Asset Management has released an analysis with three distinct scenarios for Bitcoin’s price in 2036, putting the leading cryptocurrency ahead of US stocks and gold in terms of potential returns. The study, presented this week, indicates that Bitcoin could deliver an annual return of up to 10%, surpassing expectations for other traditional assets.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin by 2036

According to the report, the firm outlined three hypotheses for Bitcoin’s performance over the next ten years. In the base-case scenario, considered the most likely, BTC would see an average appreciation of 10% per year, a result higher than the 7.5% projected for large US company stocks and the 4.1% expected for gold.

The second, more optimistic scenario considers faster institutional adoption of Bitcoin and greater global acceptance, which could further boost the digital asset’s returns. The conservative scenario, on the other hand, contemplates regulatory challenges and lower market interest, leading to growth below that of traditional investments.

Why JPMorgan’s projection matters for investors

JPMorgan’s position is relevant because it reflects a shift in perception among major financial institutions regarding Bitcoin’s potential. Traditionally, BTC was seen as a speculative asset, but it is now being analyzed as a real alternative for portfolio diversification for institutional investors.

According to the firm, Bitcoin has characteristics that could make it more resilient than stocks and gold in certain economic cycles. Among the highlighted factors are BTC’s limited supply, its independence from national monetary policies, and the growing interest from funds and companies in holding part of their assets in cryptocurrencies.

Return comparison: Bitcoin, stocks, and gold

In the report, JPMorgan compares the expected returns of major assets for the next decade. While Bitcoin could reach 10% per year, US stocks are expected to yield 7.5% and gold 4.1%. This difference may attract investors seeking greater appreciation potential, although BTC’s risk is also higher.

Additionally, the analysis suggests that Bitcoin could serve as an alternative hedge during periods of instability, directly competing with gold, the traditional store of value. The growth of the Bitcoin ETF market in the United States, for example, is cited as one of the factors that could support institutional demand for the asset.

What to watch for in the coming years

JPMorgan’s report highlights that Bitcoin’s performance will depend on factors such as regulatory developments, technological advances, and the behavior of major institutional investors. The entry of financial giants into BTC-related products, such as index funds and custody platforms, could be decisive for strengthening the asset in the coming years.

On the other hand, regulatory uncertainties and possible restrictions in major economies could limit the pace of appreciation. Investors should closely monitor decisions by regulatory bodies and moves by major industry players to identify opportunities and risks in the cryptocurrency market.

Want to trade crypto with AI support? Check out Zayion AI, Bianchi Capital’s trading assistant.

With information from BeInCrypto Brazil, September 2026.

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Alexandre Bianchi

Fundador da Bianchi Capital e do Zayion AI. ~10 anos no mercado de ativos digitais, autor de referência e presença na mídia.

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